Renewable Expansion and Fossil Persistence in Southeast Asian Electricity Systems
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.65310/2xgvtn18Keywords:
Energy Transition, Electricity Generation, Fossil Persistence, Renewable Energy, Southeast AsiaAbstract
Southeast Asia has expanded renewable electricity rapidly, yet a rising renewable share does not necessarily indicate an absolute retreat of fossil generation. This study examined 250 country-year observations for ten Southeast Asian economies from 2000 to 2024 using harmonized Ember electricity data and exact accounting decompositions. Regional generation rose from 378.76 to 1,351.60 TWh. Renewable output increased by 276.71 TWh, but fossil output increased by 696.13 TWh, so renewables supplied 28.44% of total generation growth. The regional fossil share fell by 6.56 percentage points; endpoint decomposition attributed a 1.26-point increase to within-country mix changes and a 7.82-point decrease to changing production weights. During 2019–2024, renewables supplied 49.98% of incremental generation, while fossil output still rose in every economy. The results showed that transition monitoring should report renewable additions, absolute fossil volumes, and regional composition together. The evidence supports investment strategies that link renewable deployment with fossil-dispatch, demand, grid, and retirement objectives rather than relying on renewable-share targets alone.
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Copyright (c) 2026 Bayu Romadon, Kongkon Bordoloi, Deshan K. D., Muhammad Talha Zubair Yaqub (Author)
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