Tourism Recovery and Structural Resilience in Indonesia After COVID-19
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.65310/erqkh065Keywords:
crisis resilience, inbound tourism, Indonesia, recovery index, tourism managementAbstract
Indonesia’s inbound tourism experienced a severe pandemic contraction followed by a rapid but nonlinear recovery between 2019 and 2025. This study examined the depth, speed, and remaining gap of that recovery using a longitudinal quantitative descriptive design based on official BPS-Statistics Indonesia data. Annual international visitor arrivals were analyzed through year-on-year growth, a 2019-based recovery index, recovery gaps, and phase-specific comparisons. Arrivals fell from 16.11 million in 2019 to 1.56 million in 2021 before rising to 15.39 million in 2025. The recovery index increased from 9.68 at the 2021 trough to 95.53 in 2025, leaving a gap of 0.72 million visits, or 4.47%, below the pre-pandemic benchmark. The findings show that Indonesia achieved substantial demand restoration, while growth moderated as the market approached its former scale. However, restored visitor volume does not automatically indicate structural resilience. Stronger resilience requires market diversification, crisis preparedness, digital capability, financial and workforce adaptability, and sustainable destination management. The study provides an empirical framework for distinguishing numerical tourism recovery from broader organizational, institutional, and destination-level resilience for future shocks and long-term sustainable tourism development strategies.
Downloads
References
Abbas, J., Mubeen, R., Iorember, P. T., Raza, S., & Mamirkulova, G. (2021). Exploring the impact of COVID-19 on tourism: Transformational potential and implications for a sustainable recovery of the travel and leisure industry. Current Research in Behavioral Sciences, 2, 100033. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.crbeha.2021.100033
Assaf, A., & Scuderi, R. (2020). COVID-19 and the recovery of the tourism industry. Tourism Economics, 26(5), 731–733. https://doi.org/10.1177/1354816620933712
BPS-Statistics Indonesia. (2021). International visitor arrival statistics 2020. BPS-Statistics Indonesia.
BPS-Statistics Indonesia. (2022). International visitor arrival statistics 2021. BPS-Statistics Indonesia.
BPS-Statistics Indonesia. (2023). International visitor arrival statistics 2022. BPS-Statistics Indonesia.
BPS-Statistics Indonesia. (2024). International visitor arrival statistics 2023. BPS-Statistics Indonesia.
BPS-Statistics Indonesia. (2025). International visitor arrival statistics 2024. BPS-Statistics Indonesia.
BPS-Statistics Indonesia. (2026). International visitor arrival statistics 2025. BPS-Statistics Indonesia.
Brouder, P. (2020). Reset redux: Possible evolutionary pathways towards the transformation of tourism in a COVID-19 world. Tourism Geographies, 22(3), 484–490. https://doi.org/10.1080/14616688.2020.1760928
Dolnicar, S., & Zare, S. (2020). COVID19 and Airbnb—Disrupting the disruptor. Annals of Tourism Research, 83, 102961. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.annals.2020.102961
Fotiadis, A., Polyzos, S., & Huan, T.-C. T. C. (2021). The good, the bad and the ugly on COVID-19 tourism recovery. Annals of Tourism Research, 87, 103117. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.annals.2020.103117
Gössling, S., Scott, D., & Hall, C. M. (2021). Pandemics, tourism and global change: A rapid assessment of COVID-19. Journal of Sustainable Tourism, 29(1), 1–20. https://doi.org/10.1080/09669582.2020.1758708
Hall, C. M., Scott, D., & Gössling, S. (2020). Pandemics, transformations and tourism: Be careful what you wish for. Tourism Geographies, 22(3), 577–598. https://doi.org/10.1080/14616688.2020.1759131
Higgins-Desbiolles, F. (2020). Socialising tourism for social and ecological justice after COVID-19. Tourism Geographies, 22(3), 610–623. https://doi.org/10.1080/14616688.2020.1757748
Jiang, Y., Ritchie, B. W., & Benckendorff, P. (2019). Bibliometric visualisation: An application in tourism crisis and disaster management research. Current Issues in Tourism, 22(16), 1925–1957. https://doi.org/10.1080/13683500.2017.1408574
Lew, A. A., Cheer, J. M., Haywood, M., Brouder, P., & Salazar, N. B. (2020). Visions of travel and tourism after the global COVID-19 transformation of 2020. Tourism Geographies, 22(3), 455–466. https://doi.org/10.1080/14616688.2020.1770326
OECD. (2020). Tourism policy responses to the coronavirus (COVID-19). Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development.
Orchiston, C., Prayag, G., & Brown, C. (2016). Organizational resilience in the tourism sector. Annals of Tourism Research, 56, 145–148. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.annals.2015.11.002
Prayag, G. (2020). Time for reset? COVID-19 and tourism resilience. Tourism Review International, 24(2–3), 179–184. https://doi.org/10.3727/154427220X15926147793595
Prideaux, B., Thompson, M., & Pabel, A. (2020). Lessons from COVID-19 can prepare global tourism for the economic transformation needed to combat climate change. Tourism Geographies, 22(3), 667–678. https://doi.org/10.1080/14616688.2020.1762117
Qiu, R. T. R., Park, J., Li, S., & Song, H. (2020). Social costs of tourism during the COVID-19 pandemic. Annals of Tourism Research, 84, 102994. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.annals.2020.102994
Ritchie, B. W., & Jiang, Y. (2019). A review of research on tourism risk, crisis and disaster management: Launching the Annals of Tourism Research curated collection on tourism risk, crisis and disaster management. Annals of Tourism Research, 79, 102812. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.annals.2019.102812
Romagosa, F. (2020). The COVID-19 crisis: Opportunities for sustainable and proximity tourism. Tourism Geographies, 22(3), 690–694. https://doi.org/10.1080/14616688.2020.1763447
Sharma, G. D., Thomas, A., & Paul, J. (2021). Reviving tourism industry post-COVID-19: A resilience-based framework. Tourism Management Perspectives, 37, 100786. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.tmp.2020.100786
Sigala, M. (2020). Tourism and COVID-19: Impacts and implications for advancing and resetting industry and research. Journal of Business Research, 117, 312–321. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jbusres.2020.06.015
Škare, M., Soriano, D. R., & Porada-Rochoń, M. (2021). Impact of COVID-19 on the travel and tourism industry. Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 163, 120469. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.techfore.2020.120469
United Nations World Tourism Organization. (2020). World tourism barometer: Special focus on the impact of COVID-19. UNWTO.
United Nations World Tourism Organization. (2024). World tourism barometer, 22(1). UN Tourism.
World Travel & Tourism Council. (2024). Economic impact research 2024. WTTC.
Yang, Y., Zhang, H., & Chen, X. (2020). Coronavirus pandemic and tourism: Dynamic stochastic general equilibrium modeling of infectious disease outbreak. Annals of Tourism Research, 83, 102913. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.annals.2020.102913
Zeng, Z., Chen, P.-J., & Lew, A. A. (2020). From high-touch to high-tech: COVID-19 drives robotics adoption. Tourism Geographies, 22(3), 724–734. https://doi.org/10.1080/14616688.2020.1762118
Zenker, S., & Kock, F. (2020). The coronavirus pandemic—A critical discussion of a tourism research agenda. Tourism Management, 81, 104164. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.tourman.2020.104164
